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Mill
use in China (Mainland) is expected to rise slower than projected earlier, and
is now estimated at 6.5 million tons, compared with 6.3 million tons consumed in
2002/03.
Mill
use in China (Mainland) is projected to exceed production by 1.5 million tons,
necessitating imports of 1.2 million tons.
Net
imports by China (Mainland) are projected to increase to 1.15 million tons in
2003/04, up from 520,000 tons in 2002/03. Increasing
imports by China (Mainland) will lead to record world trade in 2003/04,
projected to reach 6.7 million tons.
The
USA is expected to remain the largest exporter in 2003/04, accounting for 2.6
million tons, or39% of world exports, unchanged from record exports in 2002/03.
Rising
cotton prices are projected to lead to a 1.7 million ton rise in world
production in 2004/05, to 21.8 million tons.
Because of higher prices, world mill use is not projected to increase in
2004/05. As a result, world
production will exceed mill use by one million tons, causing world stocks to
grow to 9.2 million tons.
Market
fundamentals suggest that the Cotlook A Index will average 68 cents per pound in
2003/04, 4 cents higher than projected a month ago, 12 cents higher than the
average 2002/03 quote and the highest average since 1997/98. In 2004/05, the average Cotlook A Index is projected to
decline to 58 cents per pound.
As
of this writting the new crop season has been very peculiar in India. The rates
are changing every hour both upwards & downwards & there is a tremendous
fluctuation in the rates on a daily basis. About 1.5 lac bales export bargains
have already been done from India so far. Exports can reach about 5 Lac bales
soon. Both quality & quantity of cotton is good in India so far, but in
spite of that the prices are rising due to the international prices.
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